A new study led by my colleague René van Westen investigates the future of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — the great conveyor belt of ocean currents that moves warm water northward and returns colder, denser water southward at depth. This circulation plays a crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate, including weather patterns in Europe and Africa, the strength of monsoons, and sea level along the Atlantic coasts.
Why is AMOC important?
The AMOC transports heat from the tropics towards the north. This means the current redistributes heat, keeping northern Europe relatively mild compared to other regions at the same latitude, such as western Canada.
We already know from observations that the AMOC has been slowing down. A collapse would cause heat to remain where it is instead of spreading across a larger region. This would lead to: a colder climate in northwestern Europe, stronger storms in some regions, drought in others, and disruptions to ecosystems on land and in the ocean.
A weakening or collapse of AMOC would not raise sea levels evenly everywhere. Instead, it would cause increased sea level across the northern regions of the Atlantic, especially along the U.S. East Coast and parts of northwestern Europe.
What does the new study show?
Using climate model simulations and statistical indicators of stability (early warning signals of approaching tipping points), the researchers estimate when AMOC might cross a critical threshold. Their results suggest that under continued greenhouse gas emissions, the tipping point could be reached as early as 2060.
In their analysis, the collapse happens after around 2.5 °C of global warming. That means AMOC breaking is not inevitable — if we reduce emissions and limit warming, we can prevent crossing this threshold.
Crossing the tipping point would mean that the AMOC circulation weakens beyond recovery. In other words:
➡️ It cannot be fixed once passed.
➡️ Crossing the tipping point is permanent.
Public attention in the Netherlands
The research received wide attention here in the Netherlands. My colleague René was interviewed by the national news program Nieuwsuur 📺. The AMOC story runs from 28:45 to 34:42 in the episode of 26 August 2025, which you can watch here (in Dutch):
👉 Nieuwsuur episode
For those who want to dive into the science itself, the peer-reviewed article is available open access:
👉 Geophysical Research Letters (2025)
Why it matters
This study highlights how tipping points in the Earth system are not distant possibilities, but real risks that may occur within our lifetimes. The precise timing is uncertain — but the message is clear: limiting warming below 2.5 °C keeps the AMOC safe. Acting now gives us the chance to prevent a permanent and dramatic shift in our climate system.
Linda van Garderen 